Except for smartphones, the rest of the consumer products performed weaker than expected.
Smartphone shipment targets increased this year, driven by the upside in iPhone AP and high-end smartphone demand.
However, growth is still in the low single digits this year.
During the 618 event, shipments experienced YoY growth with strong promotions, particularly from iPhone.
The ratio of high-end smartphone shipments increased, raising the average selling price.
XiaoMi and Apple performed well, but OPPO performed worse than other major vendors, although it remains confident about the demand in the second half of 2024.
PC makers’ inventory levels are relatively higher than other segments, indicating they might intend to decrease their inventory.
This suggests that PC OEMs will likely purchase less compared to their consumption in the second half of 2024.
DRAM
Due to strong demand from HBM, DDR5 supply is expected to tighten, especially in Q3 2024.
Major DRAM supplier is encouraging their customers to qualify their 1B production line to prevent potential shortages.
Additionally, DDR4 demand is weak as customers prefer stocking DDR5 inventory due to the migration of computing platforms to DDR5.
Consequently, DDR5 contract prices could increase more than DDR4 solutions in Q3 2024, widening the price premium.
The LPDRAM ASP could increase less than computing DRAM as there are fewer supply issues compared to DDR5.
Moreover, smartphone vendors have accumulated high inventory levels and might adjust their inventory in the second half of 2024.
In 3Q24, LPDDR4 demand is less than originally predicted, possibly due to weak demand for mid to low-end smartphones.
However, contract price negotiations are expected to be tougher than in the second quarter.
The consumer market, excluding smartphones, is performing poor.
DDR3 and DDR4 ASPs have significantly dropped in the trading market, with some brokers offering extremely low prices to get cash back, reaching last year’s low prices.
The market could recover once channel inventory returns to normal levels or demand recovers.
However, it’s unlikely that solid demand will return this year, as recent shipments from DRAM makers have been slow.
Module houses offered some discounts for DDR4 module volume deals in the channel market.
DRAM module channel sales were much lower in June than in May, even during the 618 promotion period.
Both channel and OEM module demand have significantly shrunk, especially among PC OEMs.
This month, in the spot market,
16G DDR5 x8 original brand component remained flattish.
16G DDR4 x8 original brand component down high single digit.
16G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component down slightly.
8G DDR4 x8 original brand component down is stable.
8G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component down 10%+.
4G DDR3 x16 original brand component down mid. single digit.
4G DDR3 x16 ETT/UTT grade component down mid. single digit.
NAND
Regarding the OEM cSSD contract price, suppliers intend to raise OEM cSSD prices by more than 10% in the third quarter of 2024.
However, they could face significant pressure from the demand side.
Additionally, PC OEMs might reduce their purchasing volume from module vendors by employing pricing strategies.
Certain PC OEM requested low than 5% growth.
eSSD demand remains strong and ASP is expected to grow more than other NAND solutions, with vendors continuing to raise the market TAM.
The contract price for mobile solutions is projected to increase less in the third quarter of 2024.
UFS ASP could increase by around mid-single digits.
Some vendors offered higher prices in the first half of 2024, which means they couldn’t raise prices in the second half of 2024.
Additionally, the strong demand for eSSD does not benefit all NAND suppliers.
Consequently, UFS pricing is expected to grow less than other applications in Q3 2024.
The consumer usage eMMC prices might not able to raise in 3Q24 due to poor demand.
Client SSD prices are dropping, and sales in the retail market are sluggish, much weaker than last month.
The demand during the 618 event is much less than last year.
Raw NAND wafer demand is weak, making it difficult for NAND suppliers to raise prices further given the current market situation.
NAND suppliers have less pressure to sell the wafer and are less willing to dump prices.
Traders are offering low prices to the market to get cash back due to lackluster demand.