Smartphone shipment projections have increased, driven primarily by strong demand in emerging markets for low-end Android devices.
After a surge in flagship AP orders, entry-level APs also saw significant growth as expected.
Although iPhone EMS orders rose in 2025, they remain lower compared to 2024.
AI PCs have not substantially boosted overall PC demand, relying instead on regular replacement cycles unless a breakthrough AI feature emerges.
Meanwhile, US server demand has stayed steady, with leading US data centers pulling in some demand in preparation for future needs.
DRAM
Due to the recent price downturn and relatively high inventory levels, contract price negotiations have become more complex as suppliers aim to ship additional goods to customers.
In the server market, some combined deals (covering 4Q24 and 1Q25) have emerged, with suppliers offering discounts to boost shipments.
Although suppliers expect less than a 5% price decline for RDIMM5 in 1Q25, achieving this target remains challenging under current market conditions.
Regarding UDIMM contract prices, UDIMM4 ASP is anticipated to drop significantly in 1Q25, while UDIMM5 ASP is projected to experience a much smaller decline.
DRAM manufacturers are targeting a mid–single-digit decrease for UDIMM5 in the PC market during the first quarter.
Smartphone makers are pushing for further price reductions both this quarter and in 1Q25.
However, because LPDDR5x 8533 production readiness is not yet 100% across all vendors, this may hinder efforts on the demand side to drive prices down.
Channel demand has decreased compared to last month, primarily due to last month’s pull-in demand and the annual inventory review.
Certain module houses have experienced improved DDR5 demand following tariff policies introduced in emerging country.
DDR5 pricing from DRAM makers has remained strong.
This month, in the spot market,
16G DDR5 x8 original brand component down 3%.
16G DDR4 x8 original brand component down 10%.
16G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component down 5%.
8G DDR4 x8 original brand component down 13%.
8G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component up 5%.
4G DDR4 x16 original brand component down 4%.
4G DDR4 x16 ETT/UTT grade component down 1%.
NAND
OEM client SSD ASPs could decline by more than 10% in 1Q25, and the drop could be even larger if 4Q25 prices remain relatively high.
UFS pricing could also erode by more than 10% in the first quarter.
Meanwhile, eSSD demand growth is weaker than originally expected, which could lead to a price erosion of 10% or more in 1Q25.
Regarding raw NAND wafers, their prices declined further this month.
However, the lower channel SSD ASPs have encouraged channel SSD sales this month, resulting in an improvement in channel SSD shipments.
Although reduced capacity and slower Capex spending may help stabilize the market sooner, demand recovery remains the key factor in determining pricing.