DRAM Market
DRAM Contract price is stronger than expected in 1Q20 and spot price rebounded in this month.
In the Spot Market, the 8Gb DDR4 original component ASP increased more than 15% this month. The traders are exciting about it and keep banking their inventory.
However, the real channel demand is not good, the channel price can not be stable if there is no solid demand support.
Server demand is better than expected in 2H19 and 1Q20.
DRAM vendors got upside from US Datacenter and China leading OEMs. Therefore, RDIMM price increase and more than previous forecast for 1Q20.
In the PC market, the contract price is related stable in 1Q20.
However, the demand from the smartphone market is weak, the demand in 1Q20 from Android camp is worse than expected.
We would see mobile DRAM price decline in 1Q20, and smartphone makers are asking lower price compared with suppliers’ offering.
Due to the 4G to 5G smartphone transition, the smartphone sales in 1H20 might be worse than current projection. It will be a headwind for the coming ASP upturn.
NAND Flash Market
Nand Supply ASP increasing in 1Q20, but it’s quite different from each application.
The suppliers’ inventory level gets lower and had high intention to raise the selling price in 1Q20.
The Enterprise demand increases continuously in 2H19 and 1Q20, the ASP might increase around 15% in 1Q20.
Regarding the PC market, the ASP increasing around 10% in 1Q20. However, the ASP increasing might limited the content growth in 2020 due to BOM cost issue.
However, the smartphone market does not perform well, the sales is worse than expected in Dec. 2019, especially leading Android Smartphone makers.
Therefore, the ASP increasing for the mobile solution is not as well as other applications.