DRAM
The leading smartphone vendors are expecting to gain share from Huawei, and the smartphone sales in 3Q20 seems better than expected and set inventory gets lower as well.
Smartphone OEMs upside the component order in 4Q20 from memory supplies.
Due to Huawei event, we may see consumer DRAM relatively shortage in 4Q20, the 2Gbit and 4Gbit DDR3 ASP could be stable in 4Q20.
The server market still showed poor symptom to the market, some US datacenter claims low RDIMM price in 4Q20 due to high inventory level. The RDIMM ASP declined more than the previous projection.
The DRAM production mix changed, they are converting Server DRAM to mobile DRAM due to good demand from smartphone vendors, it could ease the price decline pressure from the Server side in 4Q20.
For the coming year, the DRAM vendors are conservative about the market demand and the bit growth is lower than the previous forecast. We may see the price stable or rebound in the second quarter of 2021.
NAND
Channel SSD price rebounded this month, but it could be a limited impact on the overall NAND market. The price erosion pressure is getting higher from the PC OEM and Datacenter side. Expecting PC OEM SSD might decline around 10% in 4Q20, and we might see supply and demand reach balance around the middle of 2021.
eSSD price seems worse than expected, some vendors are promoting eSSD with attractive price this month in order to meet the financial guidance.
Keep hearing low raw NAND price from the market, but the major module house deos not hurry to bank inventory base on the current market situation and the negative market perspective in the future.