DRAM
Retailed demand weak, Contract ASP would keep increasing in CQ3.
The channel UDIMM shipment is not improving even with 618 promotion.
Major module marker shipment decreased as their distributors are trying to lower their inventory level and weak end-customer demand.
The channel players have negative perspective about the channel UDIMM pricing in CQ3.
However, the DDR4 component hasn’t seen obviously decline due to strong RDIMM demand in 3Q. The channel UDIMM price might not easy to go down because of the high BOM cost.
The channel original brand DDR4 price increased mid single-digit and white brand is stable this month.
The consumer DRAM price for major OEM keeps increasing. However, the spot ASP is stable, there is no significant change this month.
US Datacenter demand keeps recovering, the RDIMM price would keep increasing. The customer might have pressure to accept higher ASP if their inventory level is low.
The high-end Android smartphone demand is weak in CQ3 compared with CQ2, the demand of LPDDR5 PoP decreased.
China 618 event does help the shipment, it’s obviously improved compared with the previous month, but certain leading China vendor still has high inventory pressure.
They may have pressure to adjust their production plan if they cannot digest the inventory smoothly in summer.
NAND
Retailed Demand weak, but the performance OEM cSSD and eSSD demand strong
Retailed cSSD demand is not improving this month, 618 promotion didn’t help the sales.
However, raw wafer price keep increasing low single-digit compared with last month due to strong eSSD and performance OEM cSSD demand.
In the CQ3, performance OEM cSSD demand is much stronger than value cSSD demand, the performance cSSD ASP would increase more than value cSSD.
The Chromebook demand seems weaker than the original projection, with some order cut in 3Q21.
eSSD demand is strong in 3Q21 and 4Q21, the demand from US Datacenter is good. Therefore, the eSSD price would increase much more than other segments.
Regarding the smartphone market, the demand in 3Q is weaker than expected, especially for high-end smartphone.
In the 618 event, Xiaomi and apple sales is strong and better than other vendors.
Smartphone production wise, China’s CQ2 and CQ3 production volume decreased, and middle to low-end smartphone allocation increased.
It will impact both unit growth and content increasing this year.