DRAM Contract price quote higher and NAND wafer price hike

DRAM

Contract price quote higher in 3Q23

In 3Q23, certain suppliers tend to raise the contract price and expecting price bottom up.
However, different segment may have different scenario.

DDR4 UDIMM prices in the PC market are either down or flat this quarter, and suppliers try to raise the low price deal happened in 2Q23.
DDR5 UDIMM price would rise in 3Q23 and the price premium with DDR4 RDIMM gets widely. DDR5-5600 UDIMM supply from top 3 markers is not fully available so far.

The Smartphone vendors’ inventory relatively lower than other major segments.
The LPDDR5/x contract price has risen as expected, and the low price of LPDDR4x offered in 2Q23 would be raised in 3Q23.

Traditional server market hasn’t delivered positive feedback as AI server.
The DDR4 RDIMM contract price is relatively flat, although certain supplier like to raise the DDR4 RDIMM price.
This may be difficult to achieve given the high level of DDR4 inventory
The DDR5 RDIMM contract price quotation increased mid single digit around.
However, the most customers are not yet accepting these prices, and the RDIMM5 contract price will be adjusted after final pricing is determined.

Consumer contract prices are stable, certain low price offered last quarter raised and close to the market price this quarter.

Overall module demand in the channel is weaker than in June, especially for DDR4.
DDR4 trading prices are stable, but DDR5 prices have fallen more than expected.
The DDR5-4800 component ASP declined significantly this month, while the DDR5-5600 price declined much less.

China has published an economic stimulus package in an effort to create a positive cycle.
The China market could be improved with enough subsidy support.

This month, in the spot market,
16G DDR4 x8 original brand component is stable, and the low price offering increased low single digit.
16G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component declined slightly.
8G DDR4 x8 original brand component relatively flat.
8G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component declined high single digit.
4G DDR3 x16 original brand component raised slightly.
4G DDR3 x16 ETT/UTT grade component down high single digit.

NAND

NAND wafer price hike would help the market to become stable sooner

The NAND wafer price hike in July, but the dealt volume is not significant.
Some module makers took advantage of the price hike to raise the prices of NAND products.
The prices of low density client SSDs, eMMCs, and SD cards increased.
The NAND suppliers have to sustain the NAND wafer price and the channel price would follow closely.

Regarding the contract price, the client SSD and enterprise SSD would decline at different level this quarter.
However, some suppliers offered the flattish price in 3Q23 for SSD product line so far.
Some UFS low price offered in 2Q23 raised for the smartphone market in 3Q23.

The eMMC price is stable in 3Q23 for consumer market, but it could be raised if the Raw Wafer pricing trend up continued.

The NAND pricing reached relatively bottom is the market sentiment, but the oversupply situation is still severe.
The suppliers have to control their output, and keep production cut extending to next year in order to see solid rebound earlier.