The smartphone shipment projection for 2024 has been revised downward, and the market might grow in the low single digits next year.
AP and smartphone makers are conservative, and most smartphone vendors are adjusting their inventory levels downward.
China’s server demand remained weak this quarter, and the worldwide server build seems sluggish.
Android smartphone vendors are adjusting their inventory levels in the second half of 2024, which could put high pressure on price negotiations.
PC makers are also implementing inventory corrections, and their 2Q24 end inventory levels might be even higher than those of smartphone vendors.
Server build plans have been postponed, and vendors are also lowering their inventory levels.
DRAM
In general, the oversupply of DDR4/LPDDR4x is significant.
Major DRAM manufacturers are attempting to push more DDR4/LPDDR4x products into the market in the second half of 2024.
Demand for DDR4 from the PC and server segments is weak, and LPDDR4x demand from smartphone makers are much lower than anticipated, leading to a significant buildup in DDR4 and LPDDR4x inventories among DRAM makers.
Given the current strategies of these major DRAM vendors, they might try to lower DDR4/LPDDR4x inventory in the second half of 2024, which will put considerable pressure on the pricing.
The RDIMM market remained strong this quarter, particularly for DDR5 RDIMM.
This upward momentum may continue in the fourth quarter of 2024, though DDR4 RDIMM could soon reach the peak of its current uptrend.
Additionally, server OEMs have attempted to reduce their inventory level in 2H24.
The PC market is facing similar conditions, with limited purchasing of DDR4.
Consumer demand remains weak, and we may soon see a decline in consumer DRAM contract prices.
In conclusion, it would not be surprising if DDR4/LPDDR4x contract prices decline in the near future.
Regarding the channel market, some module houses are selling DDR5/4 UDIMMs at low prices.
As DRAM vendors aim to ship more DDR4 components to the market, the prices for DDR4 UDIMMs and components are likely to decrease further.
However, overall shipments are lower than last month.
This month, in the spot market,
16G DDR5 x8 original brand component down 2%.
16G DDR4 x8 original brand component up 4%.
16G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component down 7%.
8G DDR4 x8 original brand component down 6%.
8G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component down 6%.
4G DDR4 x16 original brand component down 2%.
4G DDR4 x16 ETT/UTT grade component down 7%
NAND
The eSSD demand remained strong, and the price is expected to keep rising in 4Q24.
Price negotiations this quarter have not been as smooth as in previous quarters, with Datacenter’s being less willing to accept higher prices.
It is estimated that prices could see a low single-digit increase next quarter.
NAND suppliers aim to maintain the ASP uptrend for OEM client SSDs, but the demand side is leaning toward price erosion.
Price negotiations in 4Q24 are expected to be challenging, with OEMs’ inventory strategies influencing final pricing.
It’s possible that the ASP of client OEM SSD s could drop.
Android smartphone vendors are like to see price drops in 2H24, as they seek to reduce their inventory as much as possible.
However, current 3Q24 pricing appears stable, though there is a high possibility that UFS prices will decline in 4Q24.
Raw NAND trading prices have dropped significantly this month, but offers from NAND suppliers have only slightly decreased.
Transactions have been limited this month.
Leading client SSD module houses stopped cutting prices earlier this month, resulting in increased demand for inventory replenishment.
Channel demand has remained consistently weak.