China Covid lockdowns and Russia Ukraine war impacts the demand and supply chain

The China lockdown restriction limited the production ability and weaken China’s consumption ability.
The transportation is forbidden in Shanghai area for EMS and some component vendors, that will impact the delivery schedule for both normal production and new product developing. The lockdowns reduced the economic activity as well.

US Datacenter demand sustained, but China server demand is soft.
The component shortage still exists and demand side does not hurry to pull the goods like before.

DRAM

Smartphone market has no improving, vendors are cutting orders continuously.
DRAM suppliers like to see mobile DRAM contract price up or flattish in this quarter, but it would be flat or low single digit down most likely.

In April timeframe, the PC related component shipment is much worse than expected.
PC build volume would be worse due to the China lockdowns.
The contract price would decline low single digit this quarter, and could drop further in the second half.

The consumer market and channel demand is soft, the trading price is lower than the suppliers’ official offering.
EU market performed weak due to Russia Ukraine war this month.
Both DRAM component and UDIMM channel price went down this month.
8G/16G DDR4 x8 original brand component declined 3-5%.
8G/16G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component declined high single digit this month.
4G DDR3 x16 component price dropped around 10%.

NAND

NAND Flash demand weak, the selling price trend turned down

The PC demand remained soft, it’s even weaker due to China lockdowns and Russia Ukraine war.
The OEM client SSD price up in this quarter, but it might turn down in next quarter.

The Nand wafer selling price increased less than expected this month, and certain supplier offered lower price compared with last month in order to deal with customers.
Some customer did not accept the offering. The Nand wafer price may go down more in May. In addition, the channel client SSD price declined as well.

However, due to Kioxia contamination event, Bics4.5 wafer is shortage to the market, the ASP hike significantly this month.

The UFS price offering to the smartphone vendors is flat or slightly up this quarter.
The eMMC official price up this quarter, but the marketing price goes down recently due to weak consumer demand.