The customers are lowering their inventory level as current weak market.
Almost all the applications faced headwind to meet their shipment target in 2H22.
Consequently, each application cut their memory order.
However, the buyers are trying to lower their inventory at the current severe price downturn.
Therefore, the memory shipment ability is much weaker than expected.
DRAM
PC shipment in CQ2 is much worse than the original forecast, the PC shipment projection declined in 2022 and 2023.
As mentioned, the US Datacenter demand decreased in 2H22 compared with original plan.
Regarding the pricing in CQ3, the dealing price declined significantly in the channel market this month, and both major PC and server contracrcustomers’ price target is much lower than the current price projection.
UDIMM and RDIMM contract price might decline more than 15% QoQ in CQ3 after the price negotiation is final.
Smartphone demand cut a lot in CQ3 with LPDRAM and MCP price declined significantly, which is a more than 15% QoQ drop this quarter.
Spot price update, in this month
16/8G DDR4 x8 original brand component declined high single digit.
16/8G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component declined 8~10%.
4G DDR3 x16 original brand component declined 10%+.
4G DDR3 x16 ETT/UTT grade component declined mid single digit.
NAND
The UFS price declined around 15% and xMCP price dropped more than 15% for smartphone vendors.
However, the demand is still limited. The smartphone shipment projection decreased again.
The client SSD demand is not well as PC shipment target reduced. The selling price declined more than 10% in CQ3.
The PC OEMs might try to decrease their inventory level, otherwise the price could be decreased further.
The Raw Nand Wafer price declined a lot this month, NAND Flash vendors are having pressure to sell more NAND to the Market.
Certain module house with a high inventory level accepted extremely low price as they got sizable finished good order.
The inventory pressure exists in both supply side and demand side, and the supply side’s inventory gets higher.
It would take couple quarters to normalize the inventory level.