Smartphone market keeps recovery in China market.
Shipment volume during the Double 11 event were better than last year, and the post-event decline was smaller than expected.
Each new model releasing encouraged the shipment significantly, such as XiaoMi 14 and OPPO Reno 11.
In 2024, the server projection for each US DCs have different behavior. Certain DC cut their capex, while another DC increases their conventional server demand.
However, the aggressive AI preparation remains unchanged so far.
PC shipment could be weaker than expected in 4Q23, but the low single shipment growth is the consensus for 2024.
Smartphone, and server vendors are banking inventory, and pushed the ASP toward higher.
The fulfill rate is low and the trend is expected to continue in 1Q24.
DRAM
Customers keep banking inventory
Both RDIMM4 and RDIMM5 ASPs rose more, especially the RDIMM4. The price gap is narrowing.
The RDIMM5 supply is improving as the leading DRAM vendor is able to mass production for select customers.
HBM3 supply constrain is the limitation for the AI server’s shipment, the situation is expected to improve in Dec. if the qualification goes smoothly.
The channel demand is weaker than last month, the module pricing is relatively stable.
Double 11 promotion is limited as weak demand.
Most component prices are stable this month.
As the DDR5-5600 supply becomes more widely available, the DDR5/DDR4 price premium is expected to shrink in the near future.
This month, in the spot market,
16G DDR4 x8 original brand component up low single digit.
16G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component relatively stable.
8G DDR4 x8 original brand component relatively stable.
4G DDR3 x16 original brand component down low single digit.
4G DDR3 x16 ETT/UTT grade component relatively stable.
NAND
NAND vendors are intentionally pushing up wafer prices
NAND wafer prices rose significantly this month and are expected to be higher next month.
The NAND wafer business might have positive margin in late 1Q24.
However, the actual demand remains weak expect in the smartphone market.
Based on the current NAND wafer pricing, the contract prices would rise higher, particularly for client SSD and enterprise SSD.
The prices are projected to increase further in 1Q24.
Enterprise SSD order surged this month, but the suppliers are not willing to ship too much due to current low pricing.
Channel SSD shipment is similar with last month, which performed better than channel DRAM module business.
Channel SSD prices continue to improve as NAND wafer prices rise.