Memory demand and ASP declined more than expected this quarter

The macroeconomics performed weak and the inflation hasn’t hit the peak yet.
China demand hasn’t seen improving after the the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party .
The Covid-19 restriction policy hasn’t seen loosing yet.

The US DC cut some order in 4Q22, and PC demand stayed at sluggish situation. The PC shipment might declined in 4Q22 QoQ.
The overall smartphone shipment projection declined for both 4Q22 and 2023.
The consumer demand is weak. Based on the foundry order cutting status, the demand would be slow in 2023.

DRAM

DRAM demand keeps declining, which is more than expected.

Regarding the Price Trend, the contract price declined significantly in this quarter.
UDIMM, RDIMM, mobile memory ASP declined sharply. In addition, the 4Q22 price would not be closed so early, the 4Q22 price will be adjusted around end of 4Q22.

The spot price declined with limited demand, the major module houses’ inventory is high, it’s difficult for them to carry more inventory unless suppliers offered an extremely low price.
However, it’s not a healthy cycle to ask customers to carry high inventory, the price would drop more if customer’s inventory is high.
The China 1111 event is coming, but the market is not exciting about it and don’t expecting good sales from there.

This month, in the Channel market, the DRAM trading price dropped,

16G DDR4 x8 original brand component declined ~15%.
16 DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component declined ~10%.
8G DDR4 x8 original brand component declined ~15%..
8G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component declined ~5%.
4G DDR3 x16 original brand component declined 10~15%.
4G DDR3 x16 ETT/UTT grade component declined ~5%.

NAND

Nand Contract Price declined sharply in tis Quarter

During the current downturn, the suppliers are pushing the content growth up by aggressive pricing.
The suppliers are promoting 1TB cSSD and the high density uMCP in order to consume more GB in the following quarters.
If the customers buy in and promoting the high density storage, the bottom of NAND market could come earlier and rebound stronger.

The Raw Nand Price is low, it’s low enough to use good die to build channel products. However, the raw NAND transaction is not much this month.
Some module house took sizable volume last month, and they have to keep pulling the goods, which dealt last month.
The Channel SSD demand is not well, and some vendors are trying to promote 2TB cSSD during the 1111 event.
However, the 2TB price is around $100, it might be too high to be well accepted by the clients.