Demand Status update
Foresee the Client SSD market in 2Q18, the QoQ unit growth rate could be more than 8% with around 4% QoQ content Growth. It’s mainly driven by OEM client unit growth, and the Retailed SSD unit growth is limited.
The Enterprise SSD bit demand could increase around 14% in 2Q18 compared with 1Q18, PCIe demand is strong and SATA demand is lowering down after 2Q18.
The overall 1Q18 Smartphone market is disappointed, the Flagship model sales was poor and China vendors was busy on digesting their set inventory. However, the initial component preparation of the mainstream smartphone from China vendors in late 1Q18 and 2Q18 is good.
iPhone sales would play an important role for Smartphone NAND consuming since the high content per box. As our prediction, iPhone sales in 2Q18 could decrease 20% compared with 1Q18, but the new 2018 iPhone component preparation could start in mid of 2Q18. That will ease the pressure from the NAND vendors.
Price forecast
The channel demand is weak, the SSD selling price keeps going down, especially 128GB SSD. Regarding the NAND ASP in channel market, the 3D TLC NAND related stable in March compared with February. In early April, the market price is down compared with late March, the 256Gb TLC market price declined more than 10%. The channel vendors are seeking cheaper NAND to support the market. However, NAND suppliers is holding inventory with high price target. During the current slow season, the buyers cannot accept at that high price because of the low and declining SSD market price.
Regarding the Client OEMs, the 2Q18 SSD price decreased less than our original prediction, it’s only -3% to -7% for different density type. One of the reason is the tight DRAM supply condition.
For the price of smartphone solutions, high density TLC UFS declined more than low density MLC solutions. The most of the eMCP parts are flat with 1Q18, except some eMCPs for entry level smartphone ASP declined slightly.
In 2H18, we think the ASP would drop continuously even the demand could be better.