Potential supply constraints push the contract price higher

Smartphone shipments have performed better than expected, prompting a revision of the annual shipment target upward.
High-end AP orders have increased this month due to strong demand from flagship smartphones. Chinese smartphone manufacturers remain optimistic this year, expecting shipment growth to turn positive.
PC shipments showed positive growth in the first quarter of 2024, with continued positive growth expected this year despite a potential slowdown in the second quarter.
As for the server market, there hasn’t been a significant increase in demand so far.
The demand from China’s carrier bidding has been released more slowly than originally expected.
Apart from AI servers, the enterprise server demand is performing better than conventional data center demand.

DRAM

The second quarter DRAM contract price will increase more than previously predicted.
Suppliers are focusing on maximizing HBM production and shipment, which could constrain production of other types of DRAM, particularly DDR5.

RDIMM prices are expected to increase by more than 20% this quarter due to low inventory levels among some OEMs and concerns about future supply constraints.
PC DRAM prices have also risen more than expected, potentially reaching a 20% increase. Additionally, the price gap between DDR4 and DDR5 is unlikely to narrow significantly this quarter.
However, a certain PC OEM rushed to final the deal due to concerns about the impact of the Taiwan 403 earthquake. This is also one of the reasons the price increase was higher than expected.
Mobile DRAM prices could increase by around 15% this quarter, and price negotiations might take longer due to varying offers from different suppliers.

The demand for channel modules is much weaker than in March.
The performance in the first quarter of 2024 was outstanding, but demand in April seems to have returned to a level similar to last year’s. Spot component trading activities have not been doing well this month.

This month, in the spot market,
16G DDR5 x8 original brand component up ~4%.
16G DDR4 x8 original brand component down slightly.
16G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component down slightly.
8G DDR4 x8 original brand component up slightly
8G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component down slightly.
4G DDR3 x16 original brand component down ~4%
4G DDR3 x16 ETT/UTT grade component up slightly.

NAND

The surging demand for eSSDs has driven prices higher

This month, demand for eSSDs continued to increase, with more and more data centers and OEMs raising their orders.
The growing demand is driven by both AI training needs and  conventional data center demand.
Additionally, the demand for higher-density QLC eSSDs increased due to concerns about server TCO.
The 60TB QLC eSSD has entered mass production for an expanding customer base.

As the demand for eSSDs increases, the contract price for OEM cSSDs could rise by about 20% this quarter.
Regarding mobile solutions, it may take longer to finalize the price due to differences in the price offerings from various suppliers.
However, UFS prices could increase by about 15% this quarter.

The demand for channel SSDs is not strong this month, leading to a decline in prices compared to last month.
White brand module manufacturers are willing to lower their selling prices to meet market demand.

Although the price of raw NAND wafers offered by NAND suppliers continues to rise, the price of raw NAND wafers has dropped significantly in the trading market.