The smartphone market outperformed expectations, with vendor promotions driving demand.
Additionally, subsidies from the Chinese government are anticipated to boost sales in China, particularly benefiting the mid-to-low-end segments.
However, iPhone shipments are likely to remain weak throughout the year, with the first half potentially underperforming compared to last year.
PC shipment projections have been slightly revised upward, with OEMs currently expecting low single-digit growth due to a lack of strong driving factors.
Datacenter demand is expected to outperform other server segments.
DRAM
Most 1Q25 deals have not been finalized yet, as customers are seeking lower price targets amid the pricing downturn.
PC UDIMMs are expected to decline more than anticipated, with UDIMM5 prices dropping by 12–15% and UDIMM4 experiencing even steeper declines.
Server RDIMM5 is likely to see a smaller decline than RDIMM4 at this stage, with RDIMM5 expected to drop less than 10%, while RDIMM4 could face double-digit declines, especially for 64GB modules.
Negotiations for mobile DRAM pricing could not be concluded before Lunar New Year, and prices may fall more than suppliers’ guidance suggests.
However, the readiness of major suppliers LPDDR5x has improved, which could be a negative factor for price stabilization.
The channel market has been weak this month, and inquiries remain sluggish.
This month, in the spot market,
16G DDR5 x8 original brand component down 1%.
16G DDR4 x8 original brand component down 6%.
16G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component down 7%.
8G DDR4 x8 original brand component up 5%.
8G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component down 3%.
4G DDR4 x16 original brand component down 3%.
4G DDR4 x16 ETT/UTT grade component Flat.
NAND
OEM cSSD ASP declined further as anticipated.
Customers are dissatisfied with the current offerings and are demanding lower prices, resulting in a nearly 20% drop.
UFS pricing may also see further declines, with a potential 15% erosion this quarter.
The ASP of eMMC, made with 2D NAND, is expected to decline at a slower rate due to supplier capacity cuts and weak demand.
MLC eMMC has become legacy technology and is now less significant for NAND suppliers.
Raw NAND prices continued their downward trend, with lower-grade wafers experiencing steeper declines compared to standard-grade products.
Channel activity remains sluggish but could improve after the Lunar New Year.