DRAM
Certain server demand increase in CQ4 and channel UDIMM price hike around the end of this month
In the computing market, 8Gbit DDR4 component is relatively tight due to advanced node migration and converting from computing DRAM to mobile DRAM.
Therefore, some RDIMM upside demand occurred due to the potential 8Gbit DDR4 shortage in the coming quarters.
Because of the upside and pull in deals, the 32GB RDIMM ASP declining ratio is less than the previous projection in the coming 4th quarter.
The NB and Chromebook demand remained strong in CQ4, but some negative signals showed up recently. We will monitor the possible change and update accordingly.
The Channel market Udimm price hike, but the demand is not well. The retailed agents have high enough inventory right now.
The Spot pricing, 8Gbit DDR4 x8 original brand price is stable, and the white brand price increase more than 10% this month.
The consumer 4G/2G x16 DDR3 production ASP is related stable in this month.
Due to the upside deal from the smartphone markers, the mobile DRAM might decline less than 5% in CQ4.
The Datacenter vendors’ inventory level would back to normal stage around the end of CQ4 and the DRAM vendors remained conservative production forecast in 2021.
The DRAM upturn cycle might occur around the end of 1Q21.
NAND
The retailed USB-drive and SD Card demand improved this month.
Regarding the retailed SSD, the selling price keeps strong momentum. The Nand supply to the channel market is insufficient.
The suppliers are trying to sell more bit and promoting OEM cSSD to the customers, the selling price declines middle to low single-digit in this month.
In the coming quarter, the OEM cSSD price negotiation is not final yet, and it could decline around 10% QoQ.
As mentioned, the smartphone market gets better and some upside happened in the CQ4, the UFS ASP will be stable and declining less than other contract segments.
Some module house is requesting more wafer support from the supplier around the end of this month, the low wafer price offering to the market might have chance to rebound for a period of time before more raw Nand supply to the market.