DRAM
Smartphone market keeps slow momentum and channel inventory remained at a high level.
The Covid-19 impacted India, Southeast Asia, and Brazil’s smartphone market as well.
Smartphone vendors are adjusting their smartphone build plan, but there is no significant order cut to the memory vendors so far.
However, the memory configuration seems toward the low end in the coming third quarter compared with the current second quarter.
In conclusion, the smartphone DRAM ASP QoQ increasing in the third quarter would be less than the second quarter. Even though, suppliers like to see Mobile DRAM ASP increasing at a similar range in the second quarter.
The Q3 UDIMM contract price might increase less than RDIMM due to weak channel UDIMM demand.
However, the PC shipment could be stronger than the current estimation if the component shortage condition eased.
Server demand is good, Datacenter demand and new platform releasing enhanced the RDIMM consumption in 2H21.
The RDIMM channel price increased significantly this month, it would push the contract price higher in the third quarter.
The suppliers like to see more than 10% increasing in the coming quarter.
The Channel market demand is relatively weak this month.
The Chia crypto mining enhanced 32GB/16GB UDIMM demand and 16Gbit DDR4 component demand.
However, the overall channel market stays at relatively slow and sluggish momentum.
The 8Gbit x8 DDR4 component trading price is stable and 4Gbit x16 DDR3 component down a little bit this month.
NAND
Chia crypto mining demand enlarged the 2TB/1TB/512GB channel client SSD demand.
The channel module markers are rush to deliver the high-density SSD to the mining market.
The raw wafer price increased low single-digit on average this month and expecting another low single-digit increasing next month.
As the smartphone market a weak condition, both shipment unit and content increasing projection could be adjusted down further in the near future. The UFS price might not easy to increase as high as the 2Q price.
However, the demand from enterprise SSD is strong in the second half of this year. It might help UFS stands at a higher price in the third quarter.
The Datacenter demand keeps improving, the demand is better than expected. Certain suppliers got upside requests from the major DCs.
However, the OEM client SSD inventory is relatively high at the current stage, which would be a negative factor for the ASP negotiation in the coming quarter. The suppliers are expecting a similar price up in 3Q21 compared with 2Q21, but some OEMs are expecting a flattish. The ASP increasing in 3Q21 might be less than 2Q21.