Smartphone shipments for 2025 have been revised downward due to weaker demand, tariff impacts, and the waning impact of China’s subsidy programs.
The overall AP orders have declined, flagship AP demand remains strong, but mainstream AP orders have been significantly reduced.
Server demand increased in 1H25, driven by some DCs in both the U.S. and China due to Tariff and AI inferencing demand.
Furthermore, AI tools are gaining popularity, and their applications are expanding. it could be a positive factor driving further AI demand growth.
However, overall server OEM demand has yet to show a clear improvement.
PC demand remains weak, and growth may slow further due to conservative feedback from related component vendors.
Similarly, consumer device demand remains sluggish, with no signs of recovery yet.
DRAM
DRAM suppliers have shown a strong intention to raise contract prices in 2Q25 after the order increasing from server and smartphone market.
Improved market sentiment and recent pull in or upside deals have bolstered their confidence.
Given the current price gap between PC DDR5 UDIMMs and server DDR5 RDIMMs, this gap is expected to narrow in the coming quarters.
Suppliers aim to increase UDIMM5 prices while preventing RDIMM5 prices from declining.
However, it would not be easy for UDIMM5 or RDIMM5 prices to increase in 2Q25.
For DDR4-related modules, prices could remain stable or slightly drop from DRAM vendors, while module houses may push prices higher.
LPDDR5X price would have single digit increasing in the coming quarter, whereas LPDDR4X is expected to be stable or single digit down.
As for consumer DRAM, observed price offerings remain weak, with prices trending flat to slightly lower in single-digit declines.
The spot market is significantly more active than before, with traders expecting the price uptrend to continue at least through 2Q25.
Module makers have raised prices for both DDR4 and DDR5 modules, and distributors are highly willing to stock up on inventory.
As a result, shipments have improved compared to last month.
However, end-user demand has not shown any significant improvement so far.
This month, in the spot market,
16G DDR5 x8 original brand component up 9%.
16G DDR4 x8 original brand component up 28%.
16G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component up 4%.
8G DDR4 x8 original brand component up 17%.
8G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component up 18%.
8G DDR4 x16 original brand component up 17%.
8G DDR4 x16 ETT/UTT grade component up 20%.
4G DDR4 x16 original brand component up 29%.
4G DDR4 x16 ETT/UTT grade component up 13%.
NAND
The NAND market maintains a positive outlook on pricing.
A few vendors have offered initial contract prices for cSSD in 2Q25, showing a slight increase compared to 1Q25.
However, suppliers would find it challenging to achieve their goals.
The eSSD prices dropping over 20% in the first quarter, and potentially declining by another single-digit percentage in the second quarter.
Recently, the low density eSSD pull in or upside from DCs is expected to support price stabilization for densities of 4TB or lower in the coming quarter.
An increase in UFS ASPs for the smartphone market in 2Q25 would be difficult, which could be a single digit drop in 2Q25.
In the channel market, both cSSD shipments and ASP improved this month.
Module houses saw strong cSSD shipments to the channel market, which is stronger than DRAM modules.
PCBA vendors continue to raise prices, while the monthly deal price of raw NAND has also increased this month.
NAND suppliers are set to raise raw NAND prices by over 10% in the second quarter.
However, end-customer demand has yet to recover. The current price rebound is primarily driven by supply-side factors and market sentiment.