Each segments have negative feedback this month.
PC OEMs’ demand dropped much more than expected this month.
The 22Q4 smartphone shipment adjusted down further, and the 2023 shipment projection revised down.
Smartphone vendors’ market perspective is conservative in 1H23, and their current whole year production plan is weak.
China major makers are projecting 5 to 10% unit declining in 2023.
However, the China market is recovering in recent weeks and getting rid of Covid-19 impact. The consumer demand might back to normal in the second half of 2023.
They might revise up their production order in 2H23.
Regarding the server market, the Datacenter adjusted down their server build plan continually, and the intel SPR production delay would impact the new platform deployment.
DRAM
The DDR5 penetration for PC is accelerating, the severe market situation would force supplier to lower the price gap between DDR4 and DDR5 UDIMM.
However, the RDDR5 penetration would be slow down due to intel SPR delay and AWS GV3 mass production schedule delayed.
Regarding the LPDDR5x, the price gap between LPDDR4x and LPDDR5x is getting less.
The channel market demand is soft, the customers have less willing to pull the goods unlike some deal happened in the end of December 2022.
The module houses are expecting the DRAM leading supplier to cut DRAM capacity in their IR meeting.
However, they did not respond the market expectation this time, they have their own plan to manage the production.
This month, in the Channel market, the DRAM trading price is relatively stable this month.
16G DDR4 x8 original brand component declined mid single digit.
16G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component declined mid single digit.
8G DDR4 x8 original brand component declined mid single digit.
8G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component declined low single digit.
4G DDR3 x16 original brand component declined slightly.
4G DDR3 x16 ETT/UTT grade component declined low single digit.
NAND
Storage content could be stimulated by price erosion.
NAND suppliers are pushing their customers to raise the GB per system for both PC client SSD and Smartphone UFS and MCPs.
The current PC 1TB value cSSD Price is affordable by mainstream users, the 1TB penetration rate could be higher if ASP declining further.
Regarding the NAND storage for Smartphone, they suppliers have less willing to drop the lower density NAND solutions’ price this quarter.
However, the current initial price offering for 256+64 uMCP might be not low enough to push 128+64 demand upgrading.
The most of the contract price is not final yet, the price could be lower than current estimation, especially the smartphone solutions.
The raw Nand pricing, the low price is relatively stable compared with last month, but some high price adjusted down a lot this month.