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PC market gets worse and the Smartphone market has no improving

DRAM

PC DRAM demand gets worse and the Smartphone market has no improving

In the first quarter, PC shipment performed worse than expected and PC OEMs worried about whether the second quarter demand can be improved or not. The channel demand is poor for both PC and consumer market in Mar., the consumption would be less than last month. However, the demand may not be easy to become better in the April timeframe.

PC UDIMM channel price declined this month and the expected channel price would drop more next month. The Ukraine War and the China lockdowns impacted the PC and consumer market. PC OEM 2Q contract price is under negotiation, certain OEM agreed a flattish QoQ price, but most of the PC OEMs’ price is under discussion. The demand side requested a low single digit decline due to weak demand and the high inventory. However, the suppliers are pursuing price flattish in the second quarter.

In the Spot Market, the trading price declined, even though DRAM suppliers’ deal price was relatively flat this month.
8G/16G DDR4 x8 original brand component declined around mid. single digit.
8G/16G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component declined 3~5% this month.
4G DDR3 x16 component price dropped 4%.

NAND

Nand suppliers’ price offering hike, but the overall demand is soft.

PC demand is under projection and the OEM inventory increasing in 1Q22, but the NAND price hike is due to the Kioxia contamination event. The second quarter client OEM SSD price would increase less than expected, it might increase mid to high single digit QoQ. However, most of the price negotiation is not final yet, the demand side is struggling and is not willing to accept more than mid single digit ASP up.

The NAND wafer price raised continuously this month, but the channel SSD demand is soft and the selling price declined. The module house is not easy to be profitable based on the current Nand price. The Ukraine War and the China lockdowns impacted the PC and consumer demand.

The smartphone market stayed at conservative momentum so far. However, some smartphone component vendors are lowing the selling price to digest their high inventory, and the component vendors’ promotion could be more aggressive in 2H22. It will help the smartphone vendors to lower their BOM costs and promote smartphone aggressively. The smartphone demand could be stimulated in 2H22.

The US cloud service providers’ demand is sustained, and their demand is strong so far. However, the component shortage such as PMIC, networking IC, and CPU substrate shortages impacted their server build plan. The second quarter server build plan may be adjusted down.

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