Smartphone shipments declined 8% YoY in 2Q26, and we expect the decline to steepen further in 2H26.
China shipments have continued to deteriorate following the 618 shopping festival.
PC shipments face a similar trend, with July shipments falling sharply.
Elevated channel inventory, combined with PC ASP hikes, is likely to weigh on demand in 2H26.
As a result, 2H26 PC shipments could underperform 1H26.
Meanwhile, CPU demand for the server market continues to expand as foundry capacity allocation shifts from GPU to CPU.
DRAM
UDIMM5 contract prices are expected to rise by more than 15% QoQ, with certain suppliers’ mask prices up as much as 30% this quarter.
RDIMM5 ASP is likewise expected to increase 15–20%.
For LPDRAM used in smartphones, however, the price hike is expected to be more limited, which likely below 10% this quarter.
The demand-side customers are pushing back against excessive price increases to avoid negative margin.
Consumer DRAM contract prices continue to rise significantly, and certain suppliers are inclined to revise LTA prices upward, as the price gap versus the market price had become too wide.
DRAM component pricing offered by DRAM vendors to module makers continues its upward momentum.
The channel module price trend remains unchanged, with DDR4 module ASP declining while DDR5 UDIMM ASP continues to rise.
However, channel module business volume has contracted significantly compared with last year, as elevated ASPs have severely eroded demand in this market segment.
This month, in the spot market,
16G DDR5 x8 original brand component up 9%
16G DDR4 x8 original brand component up 8%.
16G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component up 5%.
16G DDR4 x16 original brand component up 11%.
8G DDR4 x8 original brand component up 5%.
8G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component up 6%.
8G DDR4 x16 original brand component up 7%.
8G DDR4 x16 ETT/UTT grade component up 3%.
NAND
cSSD contract prices for PC OEMs are expected to increase by 25% or more this quarter, with certain suppliers offering hikes as high as 40%; final pricing will be adjusted pending negotiation outcomes.
eSSD contract prices are expected to rise approximately 25% this quarter, though the China market may see a lower average increase.
For UFS pricing to smartphone vendors, current detected deals point to growth of around 20% this quarter.
Channel cSSD ASP declined as expected, and demand has dropped significantly, prompting module houses to focus on developing eSSD solutions to sustain their business.
Raw NAND pricing has remained relatively stable this month, despite some suppliers raising offer prices slightly. In addition, based on the current negotiation landscape, little to no further price increase is expected in the coming month.