China shipments have declined further in recent weeks, though a recovery is anticipated during the 618 shopping festival.
China-based OEMs are expected to launch promotional campaigns during this period to work through legacy smartphone inventory.
Flagship AP orders have increased, while mainstream and low-end AP orders have continued to decline.
However, we have observed upside in feature phone-related component orders, with rising BOM costs and selling price increases in the low-end smartphone segment cited as the primary driver.
Persistently elevated inflation may further weigh on consumer spending power.
China smartphone shipment projections could decline much further, reflecting both deteriorating demand conditions and escalating BOM cost pressure.
The growing momentum of Agentic AI has driven a notable improvement in server CPU demand, with CPU order upside being significant this month.
DRAM
Contract price projections for 3Q26 are expected to increase more than previously anticipated.
UDIMM5 contract prices for the PC segment are expected to rise more than 10% quarter-over-quarter, potentially reaching mid-double-digit growth or higher, as suppliers aggressively pursue ASP improvement.
RDIMM5 contract prices could increase by more than 10% in the coming quarter.
Supply constraints have forced CSPs to reduce DRAM content per server in order to increase server build volumes.
For the smartphone market, LPDRAM contract prices are expected to deliver mid-double-digit growth.
As mid-to-low-end demand contracts, the product mix is rapidly shifting from LPDDR4x to LPDDR5x.
Due to elevated BOM cost pressure, China-based smartphone vendors have significantly reduced orders in 2H26.
DRAM suppliers are expected to reallocate capacity toward the server segment.
The channel market continued to weaken, with both DDR4 and DDR5 module ASPs and shipment volumes declining further.
However, UDIMM5 performed better than UDIMM4.
In the spot market, original brand DDR4 prices rose sharply, particularly for x16 components.
DDR4 x16 original brand components rebounded in early this month.
DDR4 x8 component prices also increased, though the magnitude was considerably smaller than that of x16 components.
Meanwhile, white brand component prices have trended lower.
LPDDR4x spot market volumes have come under pressure amid the ongoing demand shift, with spot prices declining to levels below contract prices.
The channel market performed weaker and weaker, both DDR4 and DDR5 module ASP and shipment volume declined further.
However, the UDIMM5 stands much better position the UDIMM4.
In the spot market, the trading price for original brand DDR4 price up a lot, especially the x16 component.
The DDR4 x16 original brand component rebounded as expected in early this month.
DDR4 x8 component price up, but much less than x16 component.
LPDDR4x volume in the spot market gets as the demand shifting, the spot price declined and it is lower than contract price now.
However, the white brand component price toward lower.
This month, in the spot market,
16G DDR5 x8 original brand component up 11%
16G DDR4 x8 original brand component flat.
16G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component down 12%.
16G DDR4 x16 original brand component up 4%.
8G DDR4 x8 original brand component up 12%.
8G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component down 8%.
8G DDR4 x16 original brand component up 17%.
8G DDR4 x16 ETT/UTT grade component down 9%.
NAND
Looking ahead to the coming quarter, contract prices are expected to achieve double-digit growth or higher.
Client OEM SSD contract prices could increase by more than 15%, narrowing the price gap relative to eSSD.
eSSD contract prices could see another 20%+ increase in the coming quarter.
Growing server build volumes are expected to further stimulate eSSD shipment growth.
UFS contract prices for the smartphone segment are expected to increase by 10+%.
Due to elevated BOM cost pressure, China-based smartphone vendors have significantly reduced orders in 2H26.
NAND suppliers are expected to reallocate capacity toward the server segment.
Channel SSD ASPs and shipment volumes have remained notably weak, with conditions deteriorating further since Chinese New Year.
Price offerings for legacy PCBAs have declined, yet customer appetite remains limited.
Raw NAND wafer price offerings from NAND manufacturers remain relatively stable.
Prices could increase next month, despite the prevailing weakness in the channel market.
An increasing volume of wafers released to market through brokers, though prices have remained stable.
However, packaged BGA component prices are trading at a significant discount to current wafer offerings.