China’s consumer market softened after the Chinese New Year, with smartphone demand declining from the same period last year.
The China market has deteriorated further in recent weeks.
High-end AP orders increased this month, in contrast to last month. High-end smartphone demand has performed much better than the middle to low end segments, while those AP orders were cut significantly this month.
PC shipments were solid in late March, but full-year shipments could still decline by a high-single-digit percentage this year.
Server build projections were revised higher for both 2026 and 2027.
In addition, both PC and server CPU demand may require further upside to meet customer needs.
DRAM
PC UDIMM contract prices are expected to increase by 45% to 50% this month.
LPDDR5x pricing for smartphone vendors is expected to increase by 80% to 90% this quarter, which is below our previous estimate.
RDIMM contract pricing remains firm, with prices up more than 50% this quarter.
Pricing for certain mainstream RDIMM products remains elevated and could be adjusted downward to align with competitors’ pricing.
In the consumer segment, DDR3 contract prices increased more than DDR4 prices this quarter.
The channel market slowed, particularly in DDR4 module demand.
DDR4 UDIMM demand remained sluggish, with both shipment volumes and pricing declining significantly.
By contrast, DDR5 UDIMM shipments were relatively stable, although ASPs also declined.
Unlike channel-grade modules, PC OEMs continued to pull in DDR4 modules to meet their demand.
Regarding DRAM vendors’ component shipments to module houses, DDR5 component prices have risen more sharply and are likely to increase further, narrowing the gap with server DRAM ASPs.
In the spot market, low-end offering prices for branded DDR4/DDR5 components continued to rise, while high-end quotations moved lower.
However, DDR4 high-end price declined this month, whereas DDR5 remained relatively stable.
White-label DDR4 items saw a more significant decline, mainly due to weak consumer demand and poor channel sentiment.
This month, in the spot market,
16G DDR5 x8 original brand component up 7%
16G DDR4 x8 original brand component down 5%.
16G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component down 21%.
8G DDR4 x8 original brand component down 9%.
8G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component down 28%.
8G DDR4 x16 original brand component up 8%.
8G DDR4 x16 ETT/UTT grade component down 28%.
NAND
Both cSSD and UFS ASPs maintained strong upward momentum, with cSSD ASPs increasing largely in line with expectations.
NAND supply support to PC OEMs is expected to improve in the second half of this year. Therefore, ASP increases should moderate meaningfully in 2H26.
UFS pricing may see a smaller increase than originally expected. Pricing could be adjusted once some long-term contracts are finalized.
eSSD demand remained strong, and the consumption outlook continues to move higher this year.
However, CSP demand for QLC appears weaker than originally expected for 2027, and we will continue to monitor the pace of QLC penetration.
Pricing for MLC eMMC from NAND makers and module houses remains widely spread, with NAND makers’ quotations materially lower than those from module suppliers.
Raw NAND selling prices from NAND vendors to module houses increased further this month.
The 1Tb TLC price range is wide this month, and the lower-end pricing is likely to see a larger increase next month.
The channel market transition remained sluggish, while channel SSD demand contracted sharply amid a severe ASP decline.
Prices have returned to early-2026 levels, and the channel market has performed quite differently from the OEM market.