Both PC and smartphone shipment forecasts have been revised further downward.
Amid low fulfillment rates and ongoing supply constraints, PC OEMs are lowering memory content as their current strategy to sustain shipment volumes.
Some PC OEMs are evaluating lower-density configurations, such as 6GB/12GB/24GB configurations, to reduce memory content growth this year.
Meanwhile, Intel has revised down its PC CPU shipment outlook, which could decline by a mid-single-digit percentage this year.
We expect both memory content growth and PC shipment volumes to underperform in the near term.
Premium smartphone models are expected to remain resilient or grow this year, while shipments of middle to low-end smartphones are likely to face pressure.
Based on the current preparation status of smartphone APs, a similar trend is observed, with declining order momentum in middle to low-end AP segments.
Server build plans continue to increase and are now materially higher than previous forecasts.
AI-driven demand remains a strong, ongoing driver underpinning growth across both AI servers and conventional servers.
Meanwhile, memory supply is increasingly being reallocated from the smartphone segment toward the server market in recent periods.
DRAM
Current estimates indicate that PC UDIMM contract prices could rise by over 100% this quarter compared with December levels last year.
Following an already significant increase last quarter, RDIMM contract prices are expected to increase by a further 70% or more this quarter.
The sustained strength in RDIMM contract pricing continues to push ASPs higher across all segments.
LPDRAM contract pricing negotiations with Chinese smartphone vendors have not yet been finalized and are expected to conclude around February.
Under current assumptions, ASP increases of 90% or more remain a possible scenario this quarter.
Consumer DRAM contract prices are expected to increase by another 50% or more this quarter, particularly for DDR3 products.
DDR3 price could increase more to narrow the gap with DDR4 per Gbit pricing in the second quarter.
DDR4 consumer ASPs are also expected to move toward DDR5 ASP levels during this quarter.
Spot price momentum remained strong this month, with DDR5 component prices quoted by DRAM makers posting another notable increase.
Module prices have also continued to rise, the demand from distributors improved, they are increasingly inclined to build inventory.
However, supply availability remains constrained, and module makers continue to manage inventories cautiously, as procurement from DRAM manufacturers has become increasingly challenging in terms of both pricing and volume supporting.
This month, in the spot market,
16G DDR5 x8 original brand component up 24%.
16G DDR4 x8 original brand component up 13%.
16G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component up 25%.
8G DDR4 x8 original brand component up 18%.
8G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component up 34%.
8G DDR4 x16 original brand component up 21%.
8G DDR4 x16 ETT/UTT grade component up 30%.
NAND
Contract prices strengthened sharply this month. cSSD contract prices are expected to increase by 100% or more QoQ this quarter.
Regarding the smartphone UFS market, ASPs could also see a significant uplift. Most negotiations are likely to be finalized around February, with UFS contract prices adjusted accordingly.
By contrast, the currently observed eMMC pricing range varies significantly across customers, with QoQ increases ranging from approximately 50% to over 100% this quarter.
For eSSD, observed ASPs are currently trending higher, with QoQ increases in the range of 30%–50%.
However, the majority of transactions have yet to be finalized. As a result, the eventual eSSD ASP growth rate would exceed current observed levels.
Raw NAND wafer prices increased further this month amid tightening supply, which is expected to translate into higher pricing across downstream product segments.
Meanwhile, client SSD module makers continue to exercise strict shipment discipline to maintain healthier inventory levels, reflecting increasingly constrained procurement conditions from NAND manufacturers.
Most vendors are attempting to increase bit output to meet customer demand. As a result, price increase momentum in 2H26 could moderate compared with 1H26.