Smartphone shipment forecasts have been revised downward, reflecting the sharp increase in memory BOM costs.
Under the current environment, Apple is likely to gain market share, supported by its stronger ability to absorb rising cost pressures.
AI-related demand showed incremental upside this month, supported by the foundry side.
DRAM
Contract price expectations have been revised upward for 1Q26, with a price increase of more than 50% in 1Q25 now appearing increasingly likely.
Upside order pricing for DDR5 RDIMM has excessed US$1 per Gbit this month, representing a substantial premium versus the standard 4Q25 contract pricing.
These deals provide suppliers with strong confidence to push 1Q26 contract prices toward this level, or potentially beyond.
Severe BOM cost inflation and ongoing supply constraints in the server market are expected to limit the pace of server content growth, even within US DCs.
Given the wide pricing gap between server DRAM and PC/mobile DRAM in 4Q25, the PC and mobile DRAM pricing will need to catch up with server DRAM pricing in 1Q26.
Regarding consumer DRAM contract pricing, current projections indicate a 50–100% QoQ increase in 1Q26, depending on DRAM type and density, based on quarterly contract negotiations.
However, initial pricing consensus for 1Q26 contracts is expected to be reached between major DRAM suppliers and key customers after CES 2026.
Spot prices continue to demonstrate strong upward momentum, with both component and module prices trending higher.
End-market PC module demand remain soft, as they are unable to absorb the elevated pricing.
This month, in the spot market,
16G DDR5 x8 original brand component up 4%.
16G DDR4 x8 original brand component up 35%.
16G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component up 22%.
8G DDR4 x8 original brand component up 7%.
8G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component up 9%.
8G DDR4 x16 original brand component up 75%.
8G DDR4 x16 ETT/UTT grade component up 19%.
NAND
NAND Price Upswing Accelerates
Contract pricing for 1Q26 is now expected to increase more sharply than prior estimates.
Across both client SSDs for PC OEMs and UFS solutions for smartphone vendors, ASP increases of 50% or more appear achievable.
Certain suppliers are attempting to push pricing further upward, anticipating that OEM cSSD ASP could increase by as much as 80% or more.
In addition, eMMC contract price quotations for 1Q26 from various vendors indicate price increases ranging from 50% to 100%.
Severe BOM cost inflation and ongoing supply constraints are expected to limit the pace of content growth across consumer products.
However, the 1Q26 contract pricing is expected to converge toward an initial consensus between major NAND suppliers and customers following CES 2026.
Meanwhile, raw NAND wafer prices rose further this month, which is expected to exert significant cost pressure on end products and continue to drive pricing higher.