The memory BOM cost continues to rise due to persistent supply constraints, creating a meaningful headwind for the consumer market.
As component costs move higher, smartphone ASPs are expected to increase, placing greater pressure on mainstream and entry-level models.
The sharp rise in DRAM and NAND pricing is also directly pushing up device manufacturing costs, creating clear inflationary pressure that is now being passed through to end-market pricing.
Meanwhile, robust AI server demand beyond 2026 continues to reinforce confidence among memory suppliers.
DRAM
As mentioned, early-settled contract prices are being revised, and PC UDIMM5 contract prices are expected to rise by approximately 40% this quarter. Suppliers also anticipate a further 30% increase in 1Q26.
RDIMM5 contract prices are increasing by more than 50% this quarter, significantly above earlier expectations.
Early-settled contract prices may be revised up in December.
For LPDDR5X in smartphones, contract prices are set to rise by more than 40% this quarter.
Moreover, price increases in 1Q26 could surpass those in other segments as suppliers aim to narrow the pricing gap across different applications.
Monthly consumer DRAM prices have risen by more than 20% compared with last month, and another high double-digit increase is expected in 1Q26.
However, DRAM suppliers have raised their DDR5 component selling prices to module makers by more than 100% compared with last month, which is close to the spot market levels.
Customers are accepting the increase and are seeking additional volume support from the DRAM vendors.
With DRAM prices rising sharply, module houses are deliberately controlling the volume they release to the market.
Distributors have accepted the price hikes, but end-customer demand remains weak so far.
This month, in the spot market,
16G DDR5 x8 original brand component up 61%.
16G DDR4 x8 original brand component up 65%.
16G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component up 26%.
8G DDR4 x8 original brand component up 60%.
8G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component up 31.
8G DDR4 x16 original brand component up 32%.
8G DDR4 x16 ETT/UTT grade component up 31%.
NAND
US data centers are signaling incremental demand even into 2027 and 2028.
eSSD demand continues to rise across both TLC-based and QLC-based eSSDs.
The total eSSD TAM for 2026 has also been revised upward.
Meanwhile, suppliers are increasing output to meet this growing demand.
In addition, the QLC production mix is expected to expand further.
As a result, both demand volume and supply bits are projected to increase.
Regarding the cSSD contract price, it has risen further this quarter.
In addition, UFS pricing is expected to increase by more than 30% during the period.
Based on the current raw NAND wafer pricing, the 1Q26 contract price could see a more substantial increase than in 4Q25.
The monthly raw NAND wafer price offered by NAND suppliers have risen by more than 100% compared with the previous month, which is not far from current trading price, However, NAND suppliers expect another significant price increase in December.
Both channel cSSD module houses and PCBA makers are limiting shipment volumes to the market due to the sharp rise in raw NAND prices and ongoing supply constraints.
However, channel cSSD selling prices have not yet caught up with the rapid increase in raw NAND wafer ASPs.