Global smartphone shipment forecasts have been revised downward.
Entry-level AP orders were also reduced this month, following last month’s cut to mainstream AP orders.
China’s 618 mid-year shopping festival has begun, and aggressive promotions and subsidies may help revive consumer demand.
In addition, the upside in demand for AI chips and data centers has already emerged and is expected to drive further growth in the second half of 2025.
DRAM
Across all product segments, contract prices are tracking stronger than expected.
DDR5 UDIMM prices are projected to rise by a mid-single-digit percentage, while DDR4 UDIMM ASPs continue to climb as anticipated, buoyed by momentum from the EOL announcement.
Pricing for DDR5 RDIMM is widely dispersed this quarter, and no further concessions were seen in 2Q25.
However, given current purchasing patterns and suppliers’ improving capacity, a sharp price surge next quarter appears unlikely for DDR5 RDIMM.
For smartphones, LPDDR5X ASPs have also exceeded forecasts and could increase by mid-single-digit or more this quarter.
LPDDR4X ASP increased more than expected this quarter after some applications transitioned from DDR4 to LPDDR4X, pushing prices higher.
Projecting LPDDR4X ASPs to rise by a further double-digit percentage next quarter, while LPDDR5X prices are likely to post only a mid-single-digit increase.
DRAM segments are showing divergent trends in the channel market.
Supply of 8Gb DDR4 chips is tight, driving strong demand for related modules and steadily lifting the selling prices.
By contrast, legacy parts such as DDR3 and 4Gb DDR4 are experiencing much weaker traction.
DDR5 ASPs continue to rise, but shipment volumes still trail those of the 8Gb DDR4 products.
This month, in the spot market,
16G DDR5 x8 original brand component up 2%.
16G DDR4 x8 original brand component up 46%.
16G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component up 31%.
8G DDR4 x8 original brand component up 54%.
8G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component up 35%.
8G DDR4 x16 original brand component up 17%.
8G DDR4 x16 ETT/UTT grade component up 29%.
NAND
eSSD contract prices slipped less this quarter, the upside demand from DCs could boost suppliers’ confidence.
Regarding the cSSD, the most contracts were finalized in early May, and prices have not risen as anticipated.
Leading PC OEMs continued to benefit from falling prices this quarter.
Meanwhile, UFS prices declined as anticipated.
Looking ahead to the third quarter, ASP across all product categories are expected to increase.
Raw NAND wafer prices have remained relatively stable this month, the demand is not strong.
Channel demand for cSSDs has weakened, module houses’ ASP have edged down, and distributors are reluctant to accept higher quotations.
End-customer selling prices, however, have largely held steady.
China’s upcoming 618 shopping festival has yet to generate a meaningful pull-in, retailers’ preparations appear limited.