Smartphone projections have been revised down to a mid single digit decline, as the increase in BOM cost pressures are unlikely to ease meaningfully within this year.
China shipments saw a modest rebound during the Lunar New Year period, but the year-to-date demand remains below last year’s level.
AI-driven memory demand remains structurally supported, with the upward trajectory intact.
However, potential bottlenecks on the HBM supply side could temporarily weigh on GPU makers.
Given the elevated level of BOM cost inflation, server OEMs are planning to decrease the content in order to lower overall BOM expenses.
DRAM
On contract pricing, PC UDIMM prices could increase by 50% or more in 2Q26.
Based on currently observed quotes, LPDDR5X pricing could rise by around 90% in 2Q26.
RDIMM prices are also expected to move higher again, with the increase likely to exceed 40%.
That said, the pace of price increases should moderate in 2H26, as pricing under certain LTAs appears to be stable during the period.
Consumer DRAM pricing is also expected to rise meaningfully in 2Q26, with DDR4 prices increasing by around 30% and DDR3 prices by more than 50%.
DDR4 consumer spot prices have declined, with some recent low-priced offers reaching levels close to, or even below 2Q26 contract prices.
Regarding module-related products, some brokers released substantial component volumes into the market to accelerate cash recovery, placing considerable pressure on channel pricing.
DDR5 component quotations from DRAM vendors to module makers have continued to rise, while spot prices have edged down slightly.
However, both DDR4 and DDR5 module shipments and ASPs declined in the channel market.
Prices for downgraded DDR4 components fell significantly in the second half of March.
Elevated inventory levels and the availability of low-cost inventory were likely the key factors weighing on DDR4 module demand.
This month, in the spot market,
16G DDR5 x8 original brand component doen 5%
16G DDR4 x8 original brand component down 2%.
16G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component down 7%.
8G DDR4 x8 original brand component up 5%.
8G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component down 5%.
8G DDR4 x16 original brand component down 4%.
8G DDR4 x16 ETT/UTT grade component down 4%.
NAND
Based on current quotations, client SSD contract prices could increase by 70% or more in 2Q26.
UFS pricing has risen sharply and could see a further increase of 90% or more in 2Q26.
It might be relatively more stable than other segments in 2H26, supported by certain LTA prices that have already been fixed for the second half of the year.
Enterprise SSD ASPs could also rise by a further 30% in 2Q26.
Most 2Q26 quotations have not yet been released, and contract pricing remains subject to further revision.
Raw NAND pricing continues to trend upward, with further upside likely given the current contract price levels.
Channel SSD demand has weakened, with shipments declining, while ASPs for some offers fell sharply this month.
However, most PCBA module makers have not yet lowered their quoted prices.
They may come under significant pressure if the low-priced volumes cannot be absorbed within a short period of time.