Smartphone projections have been revised down to a mid single digit decline, as the increase in BOM cost pressures are unlikely to ease meaningfully within this year.
China shipments saw a modest rebound during the Lunar New Year period, but the year-to-date demand remains below last year’s level.
AI-driven memory demand remains structurally supported, with the upward trajectory intact.
However, potential bottlenecks on the HBM supply side could temporarily weigh on GPU makers.
Given the elevated level of BOM cost inflation, server OEMs are planning to decrease the content in order to lower overall BOM expenses.
DRAM
PC DDR5 UDIMM contract prices are expected to increase by more than 110% QoQ this quarter.
Smartphone LPDRAM contract pricing has not yet been fully finalized. Current indications suggest pricing above the current levels.
The final settlements could trend even higher as DRAM vendors are targeting approximately 100% QoQ price growth this quarter.
Server DDR5 RDIMM contract prices have increased significantly more than expected, with gains exceeding 100% QoQ.
For 128GB density products, both per-Gb pricing and QoQ increases are outpacing other densities, supported by strong demand from U.S. CSPs.
Certain Supplier still try to raise the price further in March. The RDIMM5 contract price could be pushed higher this quarter.
Regarding the 2Q contract negotiations, we expect a further price increase of 30%+ QoQ.
Certain US CSPs have secured long-term supply agreements with memory vendors, structured with prepayments.
Consumer contract DRAM prices continue to trend higher, with per-Gb ASPs likely to exceed those of commodity DRAM in 2Q.
Channel DRAM pricing remains relatively stable this month, across both component trading and module businesses.
This month, in the spot market,
16G DDR5 x8 original brand component flat.
16G DDR4 x8 original brand component down 2%.
16G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component up 12%.
8G DDR4 x8 original brand component up 5%.
8G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component up 3%.
8G DDR4 x16 original brand component up 3%.
8G DDR4 x16 ETT/UTT grade component up 3%.
NAND
PC OEM cSSD contract prices increased by over 100% sequentially this quarter, broadly in line with expectations.
Smartphone UFS pricing has shown a similar growth trajectory to cSSD.
However, the per-GB pricing remains materially below that of eSSD and raw NAND wafers.
This pricing gap could drive further upside to cSSD and UFS prices in the coming quarter.
Regarding eSSD pricing, US CSPs continue to demonstrate strong willingness to secure the volume.
Certain transactions recorded sequential price increases of more than 100% this quarter.
Raw NAND pricing continues to trend upward, with 512Gb TLC experiencing a more pronounced price increase than 1Tb TLC in recent months.
Vendor supply of 512Gb TLC has seen a significant reduction.