Shipment projections are being revised downward amid weak China market performance during the 618 promotional period.
Smartphone vendors are cutting targets, and 2H26 results could disappoint further, as BOM cost increases are weighing more heavily and durably on consumers than expected.
Existing flagship AP volumes are declining as foundry order shifts to next-generation models, while mid-to-low-end AP orders are being cut further.
Server demand remains strong driven by agentic AI demand, with server build projections continuing to increase.
DRAM
UDIMM contract prices for PC OEMs could increase 15% or more in 3Q26.
However, Apple has raised its Mac-related product selling prices significantly in response to sharply rising BOM costs.
The rest of PC makers may follow Apple in raising ASPs higher.
This could further weigh on the PC market in 2H26.
RDIMM contract prices could also see 10%+ increases, with Micron’s SCA deals potentially helping to stabilize the market.
Content cuts could stimulate demand for lower-density RDIMMs, with low-density RDIMM prices potentially increasing more than high-density ones.
LPDRAM contract prices for the smartphone market could increase by mid-teens, which may be lower than other applications.
End customers are cutting demand in 2H26, remaining conservative about smartphone demand in 2H26 and 2027.
Apple has not yet raised iPhone selling prices, but the new iPhone has a high possibility of seeing a price increase.
Consumer legacy DRAM prices rose significantly in June and into 3Q26, with per Gbit ASP rising to $3–$4.
Next year’s LTA reference price would base on similar level for the initial negotiations, with fulfillment rates still below 80% in 2027.
The channel market has performed quite differently across applications.
Consumer DRAM and server RDIMM prices remain strong, while UDIMM for the PC market has performed sluggishly.
UDIMM4 pricing could not finalize deals without price cuts, while UDIMM5 prices are relatively stable.
This month, in the spot market,
16G DDR5 x8 original brand component up 7%
16G DDR4 x8 original brand component up 13%.
16G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component down 9%.
16G DDR4 x16 original brand component up 10%.
8G DDR4 x8 original brand component up 12%.
8G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component down 15%.
8G DDR4 x16 original brand component up 13%.
8G DDR4 x16 ETT/UTT grade component down 15%.
NAND
Client SSD contract prices for PC OEMs are expected to increase more than 15% in 3Q26, despite weak demand in the channel market.
eSSD demand has remained strong and could improve further as server unit projections increase, with more than 25% growth being suppliers’ target.
UFS contract prices may increase less than other segments.
Leading smartphone makers may finally settle at low-teens growth with leading suppliers.
Channel SSD pricing is mostly flattish or slightly down, and demand remains poor.
PCBA makers have refused to lower their prices, and are focusing on the enterprise market.
Raw NAND price offerings from suppliers are stable or slightly up this month, though wafer demand remains poor.
Certain vendors claim they will allocate less volume to module houses, as module houses are not able to absorb the goods.
Moreover, they intend to keep raising raw NAND prices in 3Q26.