Global smartphone shipment targets have been revised downward due to macroeconomic concerns.
While the high-end and entry-level segments remain resilient, mid-range demand continues to face pressure.
AI PCs are expected to achieve meaningful market penetration.
However, overall PC market growth is unlikely to be strong next year.
Server demand is strengthening, driven by robust AI inferencing requirements.
The surge in AI inferencing workloads is also expected to stimulate demand for web search and storage.
Conventional server demand is anticipated to see an uptick as well next year.
DRAM
PC content per box might grow better next year, since the 32GB module demand improving recently.
DDR5 UDIMM contract prices are expected to rise further next quarter, with the QoQ growth rate exceeding that of 3Q25 versus 2Q25.
The importance of DDR4/LPDDR4x in the PC market would be diminishing as OEMs accelerate the migration to DDR5 and LPDDR5x.
DDR5 UDIMM contract prices may increase more than last month’s projection.
Smartphone LPDRAM contract prices are projected to rise more than previously expected, with suppliers anticipating high single digit or more QoQ growth in 4Q25.
Demand for SoCAMM2 from NVIDIA’s Vera CPU is notably strong, surpassing demand for SoCAMM and combined LPDDR5x components for the Grace CPU, which could place additional LPDDR5x supply constraining pressure on smartphone OEMs.
DDR5 RDIMM demand remains robust, the contract price could raise high single digit+ % in 4Q25.
Limited fulfillment of customer demand in late 3Q25 and 4Q25, driven by strong AI-related orders, is likely to accelerate deal closures in 4Q25.
Tight supply in late 3Q25 and 4Q25, driven by strong AI-related orders, is likely to accelerate deal closures, supporting further upside in DRAM contract prices into 2026.
Consumer contract prices are projected to trend higher in 4Q25, with initial quotations already exceeding current forecasts.
Final pricing is likely to be adjusted following negotiations.
Overall, DRAM contract prices are projected to maintain upward momentum into next year, supported by persistent demand from US AI data centers.
Channel demand has shown signs of recovery compared with last month, with shipments of both DDR4 and DDR5 modules improving.
However, DDR4 module prices remain relatively stable, while DDR5 module prices have increased.
Component trading prices have risen sharply this month, with DDR5 component prices from DRAM makers to module houses up 10–15%.
This month, in the spot market,
16G DDR5 x8 original brand component up 34%.
16G DDR4 x8 original brand component up 20%.
16G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component up 5%.
8G DDR4 x8 original brand component up 31%.
8G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component up 12%.
8G DDR4 x16 original brand component up 25%.
8G DDR4 x16 ETT/UTT grade component up 14%.
NAND
PC OEM cSSD ASPs are expected to rise further in the coming quarters, despite sluggish overall PC market demand.
Contract price correction in 1H26 appears unlikely given the strong demand from U.S. data centers.
However, suppliers may seek further price increasing during contract negotiations.
As previously noted, stronger AI inferencing demand has stimulated both enterprise SSD and overall storage requirements.
An increasing number of US data centers have begun designing around QLC eSSDs, while the ongoing shortage of near-line HDDs has further accelerated QLC eSSD adoption.
The eSSD price growth rate might up more than expected in 4Q25 since the strong upside demand from US DCs.
Raw NAND prices have surged significantly this month, with suppliers aiming for a 20% QoQ increase in 4Q25.
Given the current robust demand from the server market, achieving this target appears feasible.
In the channel market, cSSD prices have risen sharply, accompanied by improving demand this month.
Distributors expect further price hikes in the near term and show strong willingness to build inventory.
eSSD demand projection remains solid, suggesting tighter supply conditions ahead.
Given the current market dynamics, NAND pricing is expected to remain on an upward trajectory throughout next year.