The tariff-related developments have introduced uncertainty and disorder, emerging as a negative factor in the second half of 2025.
Pull in demand was observed across all segments, though each exhibited slightly different dynamics.
Smartphone shipment forecasts for the year have been revised downward and may decline further if tariff negotiations do not reach a favorable outcome.
PC annual shipment targets saw a slight downward adjustment, though some pull in demand was noted.
In addition, PC makers would keep their inventory level this quarter.
AI-related demand remained robust, with rush orders triggered by tariff uncertainty.
Restrictions on the H20 product are expected to impact demand.
In contrast, conventional server demand continues to show relative weakness.
DRAM
The DDR4 EOL announcements from the top three DRAM manufacturers are driving a notable increase in DDR4 solution prices.
DDR4 RDIMM contract prices are rising significantly more than expected due to constrained supply from major vendors.
Buyers are turning to distribution channels to procure DDR4 RDIMMs, which is pushing prices even higher.
However, this trend is accelerating the transition from DDR4 to DDR5 on server platforms.
DDR5 RDIMM contract price negotiations for 2Q25 are proving challenging, as the price spread in 1Q25 was unusually wide.
Suppliers are strongly inclined to raise prices due to tightening supply, and the negotiation process is expected to take longer than usual.
For the PC segment, DDR5 UDIMM prices may see a slight increase or remain flat this quarter, as suppliers are aiming for mid-single-digit price hikes.
In contrast, DDR4 UDIMM prices are projected to rise further, potentially exceeding current estimates.
ASPs for LPDDR5X may up by a single-digit percentage, while LPDDR4X ASPs are expected to remain stable.
Despite weak demand, consumer DRAM prices are increasing due to supply constraints.
In the spot market, DRAM prices have surged significantly as detailed below.
Transaction activity has picked up compared to previous periods.
Both DDR4 and DDR5 module prices have increased in the channel market this month, and shipments from module houses have improved over the prior month.
Specifically, DDR4 module shipments from module makers to PC OEMs have shown significant improvement.
This month, in the spot market,
16G DDR5 x8 original brand component up 3%.
16G DDR4 x8 original brand component up 28%.
16G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component up 4%.
8G DDR4 x8 original brand component up 21%.
8G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component up 26%.
8G DDR4 x16 original brand component up 12%.
8G DDR4 x16 ETT/UTT grade component flat.
4G DDR4 x16 original brand component up 6%.
4G DDR4 x16 ETT/UTT grade component up 4%.
NAND
The contract price for sSSD may decline by around 10% or less in 2Q25, marking a notable divergence from DRAM server products.
Despite strong AI-driven demand, eSSDs have not seen significant benefits.
The contract pricing for cSSDs remains mixed, with supplier quotes ranging from slight declines to single-digit increases.
As a result, the ASP could see a modest uptick this quarter.
For embedded solutions, the price increase in low-capacity eMMC is driven by suppliers accelerating demand ahead of product EOL transitions.
As for NAND products used by smartphone vendors, 2Q25 contract prices are expected to remain flat or down slightly, which is less than originally anticipated.
Although raw NAND wafer prices have increased as expected, transaction volumes remain limited, indicating that module makers are still carrying relatively high inventory levels.
Channel prices for cSSDs have also risen, and shipments from module houses have improved.
However, the demand is primarily driven by inventory replenishment rather than actual end-user growth.
Meanwhile, suppliers continue to maintain a cautious outlook on the NAND market for the rest of the year.