China’s 618 shopping festival posted stronger results than last year, as deep promotions and subsidies successfully stimulated demand.
Nevertheless, the full-year shipment target has been kept unchanged because of lingering demand uncertainties in the second half of 2025.
Over the past few weeks, Chinese smartphone OEMs have modestly increased their orders, it’s an encouraging signal for memory suppliers.
The PC refresh cycle has slowed, and vendors plan to raise the proportion of AI PCs in 2H25 while shifting some production offshore to cushion potential tariff risks.
DC demand in both the United States and China has also ticked up this month, which should support further price increases next quarter.
DRAM
PC DDR5 UDIMM contract prices are expected to rise by a mid-single-digit percentage in 3Q 2025, falling short of earlier expectations.
The high fulfillment ratios and additional supply commitments from vendors in 2Q 2025 have weakened buyers’ bargaining power, and most PC OEMs are now pushing for flat pricing next quarter.
By contrast, demand for LPDDR5x is set to accelerate in 2H 2025, driven by the PC LPDDR5x adoption ratio increasing and the orders from Apple and Chinese smartphone makers’ upside.
As a result, PC makers could face a sequential price increase of more than 10 percent for LPDDR5x in 3Q 2025.
Continuing DDR4 shortages are likely to push DDR4 contract prices to parity with DDR5, implying a potential 50% QoQ jump.
The tight supply of DDR4 and LPDDR4x is also forcing PC OEMs to migrate to LPDDR5x and DDR5 much faster, and demand for DDR4/LPDDR4x in the PC market could contract sharply in 2026.
In the smartphone segment, LPDDR5X contract prices are expected to post a low-single-digit percentage increase, while LPDDR4X prices could rise by more than 10 % QoQ in 3Q25.
As previously noted, stronger than expected demand from Chinese smartphone vendors in 2H25 should push ASPs higher entering 3Q25.
For server memory, DDR5 RDIMM ASPs are unlikely to jump sharply, as substantial pull-in orders during 1H25 have already satisfied much of near-term demand.
By contrast, DDR4 RDIMM prices are set to rise materially, narrowing the gap with DDR5.
Ongoing DDR4 support will become a challenge for CPU suppliers; they will need to work with DRAM makers on behalf of their customers to secure DDR4 availability through 2026 and beyond.
Consumer DRAM prices are also being driven higher by DDR4’s EOL.
Based on current supplier quotes, contract prices for consumer parts could increase by 30% or more.
In June, the ASP of 16Gb DDR4 in the channel market is catching up 16Gb DDR5.
Module vendors sharply raised DDR4 UDIMM prices, and demand softened in response to the steep hikes.
By contrast, DDR5 UDIMM shipments held roughly flat month over month, while component prices edged up only slightly.
The 618 shopping festival was not a major catalyst for DRAM promotions these years.
This month, in the spot market,
16G DDR5 x8 original brand component up 5%.
16G DDR4 x8 original brand component up 36%.
16G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component up 19%.
8G DDR4 x8 original brand component up 42%.
8G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component up 62%.
8G DDR4 x16 original brand component up 70%.
8G DDR4 x16 ETT/UTT grade component up 62%.
NAND
eSSD demand from major U.S. and Chinese DCs improved in 2H25, buoyed by robust AI-server deployments and a shortage of in-house eSSD solutions caused by the DDR4 EOL.
However, the incremental pull-ins have yet to translate into a broad-based recovery, conventional enterprise spending remains weak, and server OEMs still have not seen a decisive rebound.
Contract prices for PC OEM cSSDs are expected to rise by a mid-single-digit percentage in 3Q25.
PC shipments in 2H25, especially in 4Q25 remain uncertain.
Most OEMs plan to pare back inventory in 4Q25, anticipating subdued end demand and a potential price correction in 1H26.
Smartphone demand is running ahead of expectations due to the stronger than forecast orders from Chinese vendors in 2H25.
ASP for UFS is likewise projected to increase by a mid-single-digit percentage in 3Q25.
Raw NAND spot prices were largely stable this month.
Several eSSD vendors saw solid demand, tightening their own raw NAND supply and prompting them to consider further price hikes next quarter.
By contrast, channel demand remains weak.
PCBA assemblers are cutting quotes, and retail-channel SSD prices continue to edge down.
As a result, significant upside for raw NAND pricing is unlikely, and prices could soften late next quarter if the 4Q 25 outlook deteriorates.