Smartphone ASPs have risen significantly due to higher BOM costs, and entry-level demand softened.
2H26 shipments are likely to come in below 1H26 levels, a pattern consistent with that observed in the PC market.
Full-year 2026 shipment forecasts have been revised down further, and a meaningful recovery in 2027 appears challenging.
PC ASPs have increased and are expected to rise further in 2027, driven by escalating memory and CPU-related component costs.
The server market has exhibited a notable divergence between the US and China.
US data center operators have maintained aggressive expansion plans, which require greater vendor support.
By contrast, China-based CSPs have proceeded at a more measured pace, constrained by limited GPU availability.
DRAM
UDIMM contract prices for PC OEMs are expected to continue rising in 4Q26, with an increase of 10-15% likely.
RDIMM demand remains strong, particularly for 64GB DDR5 RDIMMs.
DRAM vendors are seeking a further increase of 15% or more in 4Q26; however, a 10-15% increase appears to be the more probable scenario.
Smartphone demand remains weak, and the ASP increase in 4Q26 could be lower than in other segments.
Suppliers are targeting higher pricing in 2027 to narrow the ASP gap between smartphones and other applications.
ASPs could rise significantly in 1Q27 if customers accept the proposed terms.
Consumer DRAM prices continued to rise despite fading demand.
ASP increases are expected to moderate considerably in 4Q26 after the sharp hikes of prior quarters.
In the channel market, demand remained soft.
Both DDR4 and DDR5 UDIMM ASPs rose, although DDR5 demand was more stable than DDR4.
Reballing DDR4 components, de-mounted from retired RDIMMs, are becoming less available to the PC market.
Demand for refurbished RDIMMs increased, as retaining x4 components is expected to be more profitable than converting them into x8 components.
This month, in the spot market,
16G DDR5 x8 original brand component up 4%
16G DDR4 x8 original brand component down 3%.
16G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component up 12%.
16G DDR4 x16 original brand component down 3%.
8G DDR4 x8 original brand component down 3%.
8G DDR4 x8 ETT/UTT grade component up 10%.
8G DDR4 x16 original brand component down 3%.
8G DDR4 x16 ETT/UTT grade component up 12%.
NAND
cSSD contract prices for PC OEMs rose more than expected in 3Q26 and could increase by a further 10% in 4Q26, although some PC OEMs are expecting only a single-digit increase.
For 4Q26, eSSD contract prices are likely to rise by approximately 10%+.
Some vendors are seeking a 20% increase, which may prove too high for CSPs to accept.
In particular, eSSD prices in the China server market currently remain below contract levels.
Nevertheless, eSSD demand from the US remained strong, with some upside observed this month.
UFS prices for smartphones are expected to rise by a similar magnitude to other segments in 4Q26.
Channel SSD ASPs edged down slightly this month, as demand continued to decline.
PCBA makers have lowered their prices, but the reductions remain far from sufficient to stimulate market demand.
Raw NAND wafer prices were largely flat this month, with select items registering modest increases this month.